UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Fickett vs Diaz

1,634

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 1

prediction
95% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 5.9 Around 45% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 7.0 More than 40% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.1 More than 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 7.4 Around 35% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.0 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 177 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 169 lbs vs 150 lbs Around 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 34 years vs 37 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Drew Fickett
Harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 8.0 Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Fickett’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 4:09, how much damage will he do? Diaz Fickett
Significant Strikes29
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Fickett's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 37 Significant Strikes in 4:09
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Fickett's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 4:09
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Fickett on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Drew
Fickett
In 4:09, how much damage will he do? Fickett Diaz
Significant Strikes17
Fickett's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 37 Significant Strikes in 4:09
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Fickett's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 4:09
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Fickett is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Fickett has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Fickett is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Fickett 8.1
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Fickett 7.9
Great takedowns by Fickett
2 takedowns Apr 05, 2007 vs Nakamura
1 takedown Jul 08, 2006 vs Pellegrino
2 takedowns Aug 06, 2005 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Fickett 5.9
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Fickett 8.1
Great submissions by Fickett
Round 1 Sep 10, 2010 vs Prater
Round 2 Apr 24, 2010 vs Noble
Round 1 Aug 06, 2005 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Fickett 8.0
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 5, 2005UFC 51
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
R1 SUBX
1,9881,784
1,9121,860
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Fickett
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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