UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lytle vs Alves

2,007

CageRank

WINNER
Alves

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
56% chance Alves
WILL WIN

2,049

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Thiago Alves
Much heavier hands 8.0 vs 6.6 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.1 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly younger 34 years vs 43 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Chris Lytle
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 6.9 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.7 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly better striker 9.1 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Alves on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lytle’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Alves
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alves Lytle
Significant Strikes95
Alves's excellent striking offense will dominate Lytle's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Alves's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lytle's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alves is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alves is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alves has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Lytle on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alves’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chris
Lytle
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lytle Alves
Significant Strikes86
Lytle's excellent striking offense will dominate Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lytle's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lytle is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lytle has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lytle is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alves 9.0
fighter Lytle 9.1
Great striking by Lytle
127 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Hardy
153 strikes Sep 25, 2010 vs Serra
12 strikes Feb 02, 2008 vs Bradley

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alves 7.9
fighter Lytle 7.1
Great takedowns by Alves
2 takedowns Dec 11, 2010 vs Howard
1 takedown Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
1 takedown Nov 19, 2005 vs Chalangov

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alves 8.0
fighter Lytle 6.6
Great knockouts by Alves
Round 2 Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
Round 2 Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
Round 2 Nov 17, 2007 vs Lytle

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alves 6.9
fighter Lytle 8.7
Great submissions by Lytle
Round 3 Aug 14, 2011 vs Hardy
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Foster
Round 2 Aug 21, 2004 vs Jhun

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alves 8.3
fighter Lytle 8.3
Fast finishes by Alves
362 seconds Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
334 seconds Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
145 seconds Nov 19, 2005 vs Chalangov
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 17, 2007UFC 78
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
XDEC
1,8761,977
1,8402,013
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alves
legend Lytle
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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