UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Lytle vs Diaz

2,007

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
70% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 173 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 6.6 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly younger 34 years vs 43 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.6 vs 7.1 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.8 vs 9.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Chris Lytle
Significantly better submission offense 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Lytle’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Lytle
Significant Strikes113
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Lytle's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Lytle's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Lytle on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chris
Lytle
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Lytle Diaz
Significant Strikes95
Lytle's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Lytle's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Lytle is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Lytle has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Lytle has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Lytle 9.1
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Lytle 7.1
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
1 takedown Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
3 takedowns Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Lytle 6.6
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Lytle 8.7
Great submissions by Lytle
Round 3 Aug 14, 2011 vs Hardy
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Foster
Round 2 Aug 21, 2004 vs Jhun

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Lytle 8.3
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R2 SUBX
1,7601,550
1,6831,627
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Lytle
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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