UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Guillard vs Diaz

1,960

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
63% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 5.7 More than 50% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.2 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 9.3 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Melvin Guillard
Much heavier hands 8.9 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Guillard’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 10:34, how much damage will he do? Diaz Guillard
Significant Strikes52
Diaz's excellent striking offense is matched by Guillard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:34
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Guillard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:34
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Guillard on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Melvin
Guillard
In 10:34, how much damage will he do? Guillard Diaz
Significant Strikes60
Guillard's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 95 Significant Strikes in 10:34
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Guillard's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:34
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Guillard has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Guillard is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Guillard is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Guillard 9.1
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Guillard 7.2
Great takedowns by Diaz
1 takedown Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis
2 takedowns Sep 16, 2009 vs Guillard
5 takedowns Sep 17, 2008 vs Neer

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Guillard 8.9
Great knockouts by Guillard
Round 2 Jul 27, 2013 vs Danzig
Round 1 Jul 02, 2011 vs Roller
Round 1 Jan 22, 2011 vs Dunham

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Guillard 5.7
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Guillard 8.5
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 16, 2009UFC Fight Night 19
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
R1 KOX
1,9051,867
1,8491,922
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Guillard
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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