UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - O'Brien vs Jones

1,879

CageRank

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
95% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,377

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Better striker 9.6 vs 7.7 Around 25% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 194 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 7.6 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.1 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 9.9 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.3 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.8 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.3 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger jaw 9.7 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly harder to hit 9.6 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 193 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Slightly younger 30 years vs 32 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Jake O'Brien
From what we can tell, Jon Jones dominates Jake O'Brien in every way.
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against O'Brien’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 7:12, how much damage will he do? Jones O'Brien
Significant Strikes42
Jones's excellent striking offense will dominate O'Brien's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:12
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Jones's excellent takedown offense will dominate O'Brien's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:12
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
O'Brien on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jake
O'Brien
In 7:12, how much damage will he do? O'Brien Jones
Significant Strikes9
O'Brien's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 65 Significant Strikes in 7:12
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
O'Brien's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:12
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
O'Brien is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
O'Brien is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
O'Brien is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter O'Brien 7.7
Great striking by Jones
20 strikes Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
105 strikes Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
61 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter O'Brien 8.8
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter O'Brien 7.1
Great knockouts by Jones
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Round 1 Aug 01, 2010 vs Matyushenko

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter O'Brien 7.3
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter O'Brien 7.6
Fast finishes by Jones
273 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
974 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson
757 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Rua
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 11, 2009UFC 100
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR1 KO
1,8261,846
1,7791,894
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend O'Brien
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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