UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Edgar vs Faber

2,131

CageRank

WINNER
Faber

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Faber
WILL WIN

2,161

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Urijah Faber
Much better submission offense 9.5 vs 7.2 More than 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Advantages for Frankie Edgar
Much heavier hands 7.7 vs 6.8 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly longer reach 183 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 144 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 35 years vs 37 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Faber on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Edgar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Urijah
Faber
In 12:59, how much damage will he do? Faber Edgar
Significant Strikes50
Faber's average striking offense won't be a factor against Edgar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 117 Significant Strikes in 12:59
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Faber's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Edgar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:59
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Faber is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Faber has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Faber is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Edgar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Faber’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Frankie
Edgar
In 12:59, how much damage will he do? Edgar Faber
Significant Strikes59
Edgar's excellent striking offense is matched by Faber's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 117 Significant Strikes in 12:59
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Edgar's good takedown offense is matched by Faber's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:59
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Edgar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Edgar is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Edgar has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Faber 8.6
fighter Edgar 9.1
Great striking by Edgar
61 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Maynard
61 strikes Apr 10, 2010 vs Penn
74 strikes May 23, 2009 vs Sherk

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Faber 8.4
fighter Edgar 9.0
Great takedowns by Edgar
3 takedowns Aug 28, 2010 vs Penn
1 takedown Apr 10, 2010 vs Penn
1 takedown May 23, 2009 vs Sherk

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Faber 6.8
fighter Edgar 7.7
Great knockouts by Edgar
Round 4 Oct 08, 2011 vs Maynard
Round 1 Jul 07, 2007 vs Bocek
Round 1 Jul 10, 2005 vs Uresk

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Faber 9.5
fighter Edgar 7.2
Great submissions by Faber
Round 2 Dec 14, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Assuncao
Round 2 Dec 12, 2007 vs Curran

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Faber 8.7
fighter Edgar 7.5
Fast finishes by Faber
502 seconds Dec 14, 2013 vs McDonald
387 seconds Nov 19, 2011 vs Bowles
574 seconds Dec 12, 2007 vs Curran
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 16, 2015UFC Fight Night 66
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Faber
legend Edgar
Read More
Edgar vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Faber vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 2 comments.
This is a pretty solid example of why Cage Rank sometimes doesn't work at all.
Faber - Submission advantage. Edgar - Everything else advantage.
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