UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Edgar vs Holloway

2,131

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Edgar

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
79% chance Edgar
WILL WIN

1,900

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Frankie Edgar
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 7.5 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 7.7 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 183 cm vs 177 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.8 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Fast finishes 7.5 vs 7.3 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Max Holloway
Much taller 180 cm vs 168 cm Around 10% taller
Significantly younger 25 years vs 35 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.7 Almost the same
Edgar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Holloway’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Frankie
Edgar
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Edgar Holloway
Significant Strikes94
Edgar's excellent striking offense will dominate Holloway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns5
Edgar's good takedown offense may be a factor against Holloway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Edgar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Edgar is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Edgar has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Holloway on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Edgar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Max
Holloway
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Holloway Edgar
Significant Strikes57
Holloway's average striking offense won't be a factor against Edgar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Holloway's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Edgar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Holloway is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Holloway is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Holloway has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Edgar 9.1
fighter Holloway 8.6
Great striking by Edgar
61 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Maynard
61 strikes Apr 10, 2010 vs Penn
74 strikes May 23, 2009 vs Sherk

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Edgar 9.0
fighter Holloway 7.5
Great takedowns by Edgar
3 takedowns Aug 28, 2010 vs Penn
1 takedown Apr 10, 2010 vs Penn
1 takedown May 23, 2009 vs Sherk

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Edgar 7.7
fighter Holloway 7.9
Great knockouts by Holloway
Round 2 Jan 04, 2014 vs Chope
Round 2 Aug 11, 2012 vs Lawrence
Round 1 Nov 06, 2010 vs Kamaka

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Edgar 7.2
fighter Holloway 6.8
Great submissions by Edgar
Round 2 Dec 05, 2009 vs Veach
Round 1 Apr 14, 2006 vs McCabe
Round 1 Dec 10, 2005 vs Isip

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Edgar 7.5
fighter Holloway 7.3
Fast finishes by Edgar
1134 seconds Oct 08, 2011 vs Maynard
442 seconds Dec 05, 2009 vs Veach
295 seconds Jul 07, 2007 vs Bocek
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Edgar
legend Holloway
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 1 comment.
frankie edgar is likely to dethrone the newly crowned champ. this might seem weird considering that i'm picking somebody who already lost twice - according to major opinions - to aldo. however, frankie definitely seems to be a stylistic favorite in this matchup. holloway didnt beat aldo because his striking was as precise and heavy as aldo's; he was simply a bigger person. He utilized his cardio and long reach to capitalize on aldo's weakness. this was a strategic win for holloway. i doubt if that will work against edgar who is one of the most elite mma wrestlers and ground-and-pounders in lighter weight class. (we all saw what he did to swanson and yair.) edgar's striking is not bad - it's simply that his punches do not carry much power. his boxing is decent, so he will probably get inside max's range and batter him up with small short punches and combos.
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