UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hironaka vs Aoki

2,001

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
81% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.2 More than 20% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.8 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.0 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.7 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 33 years vs 40 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Better striker 8.3 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 6.1 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hironaka’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 8:06, how much damage will he do? Aoki Hironaka
Significant Strikes23
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Hironaka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 73 Significant Strikes in 8:06
Poor
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Hironaka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:06
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Hironaka on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kuniyoshi
Hironaka
In 8:06, how much damage will he do? Hironaka Aoki
Significant Strikes12
Hironaka's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 73 Significant Strikes in 8:06
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Hironaka's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:06
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hironaka is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hironaka is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hironaka is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Hironaka 8.3
Great striking by Hironaka
11 strikes Oct 25, 2009 vs Sik Park
35 strikes Jul 21, 2008 vs Miyazawa
26 strikes Apr 05, 2007 vs Petz

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Hironaka 8.1
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Hironaka 7.8
Great knockouts by Hironaka
Round 1 May 18, 2012 vs Diniz
Round 1 Oct 25, 2009 vs Sik Park
Round 1 Sep 12, 2009 vs Koyama

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Hironaka 7.8
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Hironaka 8.2
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
DECX
1,7321,681
1,6751,738
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Hironaka
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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