UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hironaka vs Diaz

2,001

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
70% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.3 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.0 Around 25% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.9 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 33 years vs 41 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier 169 lbs vs 153 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.6 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hironaka’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 10:51, how much damage will he do? Diaz Hironaka
Significant Strikes82
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Hironaka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:51
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Hironaka's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:51
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Hironaka on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kuniyoshi
Hironaka
In 10:51, how much damage will he do? Hironaka Diaz
Significant Strikes50
Hironaka's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:51
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Hironaka's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:51
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hironaka is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hironaka is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hironaka has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Hironaka 8.3
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Hironaka 8.1
Great takedowns by Hironaka
5 takedowns Apr 05, 2007 vs Petz

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Hironaka 7.8
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Hironaka 7.8
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Hironaka 8.2
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR2 KO
1,6211,660
1,6771,605
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Hironaka
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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