UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Guida vs Diaz

2,021

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
55% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 7.4 vs 6.6 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 177 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 183 cm vs 170 cm More than 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 32 years vs 35 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Clay Guida
Much stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 7.8 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.1 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Guida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 11:57, how much damage will he do? Diaz Guida
Significant Strikes64
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Guida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:57
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Guida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:57
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Guida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Clay
Guida
In 11:57, how much damage will he do? Guida Diaz
Significant Strikes41
Guida's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:57
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Guida's good takedown offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:57
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Guida is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Guida is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Guida has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Guida 8.2
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Guida 9.1
Great takedowns by Guida
3 takedowns Jan 26, 2013 vs Hioki
3 takedowns Jan 01, 2011 vs Gomi
4 takedowns Jan 31, 2009 vs Diaz

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Guida 6.6
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Markham
Round 1 May 05, 2006 vs Rael

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Guida 7.9
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Guida 7.5
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 31, 2009UFC 94
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR1 SUB
1,9151,973
1,9731,915
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Guida
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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