UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Guida vs Stephens

2,021

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Guida

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
56% chance Guida
WILL WIN

1,978

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Clay Guida
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.5 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 8.0 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Slightly heavier 153 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Jeremy Stephens
Much heavier hands 8.2 vs 6.6 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.4 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 8.5 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 32 years vs 36 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 175 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 180 cm vs 177 cm Almost the same
Guida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Stephens’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Clay
Guida
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Guida Stephens
Significant Strikes44
Guida's average striking offense won't be a factor against Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Guida's good takedown offense is matched by Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Guida is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Guida is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Guida has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Stephens on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Guida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jeremy
Stephens
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Stephens Guida
Significant Strikes56
Stephens's average striking offense won't be a factor against Guida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Stephens's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Guida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Stephens has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Stephens is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Stephens is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Guida 8.2
fighter Stephens 8.5
Great striking by Stephens
40 strikes Jan 25, 2014 vs Elkins
3 strikes Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
55 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Stout

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Guida 9.1
fighter Stephens 8.0
Great takedowns by Guida
3 takedowns Jan 26, 2013 vs Hioki
3 takedowns Jan 01, 2011 vs Gomi
4 takedowns Jan 31, 2009 vs Diaz

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Guida 6.6
fighter Stephens 8.2
Great knockouts by Stephens
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
Round 3 Jan 01, 2011 vs Davis
Round 2 Jan 23, 2008 vs Miller

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Guida 7.9
fighter Stephens 6.5
Great submissions by Guida
Round 2 Jan 01, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 07, 2010 vs dos Anjos
Round 2 Oct 14, 2006 vs James

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Guida 7.5
fighter Stephens 8.0
Fast finishes by Stephens
40 seconds Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
753 seconds Jan 01, 2011 vs Davis
584 seconds Jan 23, 2008 vs Miller
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Guida
legend Stephens
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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