UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Guida vs Koch

2,021

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Guida

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
67% chance Guida
WILL WIN

1,897

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Clay Guida
Much stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 7.4 Around 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.0 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Erik Koch
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 6.6 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 28 years vs 35 years 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 178 cm vs 170 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 182 cm vs 177 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Guida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Clay
Guida
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Guida Koch
Significant Strikes45
Guida's average striking offense won't be a factor against Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Guida's good takedown offense may be a factor against Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Guida is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Guida is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Guida has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Guida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Koch Guida
Significant Strikes56
Koch's average striking offense won't be a factor against Guida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Guida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Koch is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Koch is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Guida 8.2
fighter Koch 8.6
Great striking by Koch
40 strikes Sep 17, 2011 vs Brookins
4 strikes Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
14 strikes Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Guida 9.1
fighter Koch 7.4
Great takedowns by Guida
3 takedowns Jan 26, 2013 vs Hioki
3 takedowns Jan 01, 2011 vs Gomi
4 takedowns Jan 31, 2009 vs Diaz

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Guida 6.6
fighter Koch 7.8
Great knockouts by Koch
Round 1 Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Rivera
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Combs

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Guida 7.9
fighter Koch 7.7
Great submissions by Guida
Round 2 Jan 01, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 07, 2010 vs dos Anjos
Round 2 Oct 14, 2006 vs James

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Guida 7.5
fighter Koch 8.6
Fast finishes by Koch
152 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
181 seconds Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
180 seconds Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Guida
legend Koch
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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