UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Leites vs Watson

2,122

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Leites

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
84% chance Leites
WILL WIN

1,837

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Thales Leites
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 6.3 More than 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 7.6 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 7.9 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much longer reach 198 cm vs 185 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Tom Watson
Better striker 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.1 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Leites on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Watson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thales
Leites
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Leites Watson
Significant Strikes57
Leites's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Watson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Leites's good takedown offense may be a factor against Watson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Leites is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Leites has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Leites has a very good chance of winning by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Below average
Scoring ability
Watson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Leites’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tom
Watson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Watson Leites
Significant Strikes53
Watson's good striking offense won't be a factor against Leites's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Watson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Leites's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Watson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Watson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Watson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Leites 7.9
fighter Watson 8.7
Great striking by Watson
56 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs Nedkov

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Leites 9.1
fighter Watson 7.9
Great takedowns by Leites
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Herman
5 takedowns Aug 03, 2013 vs Watson
3 takedowns Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Leites 7.1
fighter Watson 8.4
Great knockouts by Watson
Round 2 Feb 16, 2013 vs Nedkov
Round 2 Mar 24, 2012 vs Marshman
Round 1 Feb 26, 2010 vs Galbraith

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Leites 8.6
fighter Watson 6.3
Great submissions by Leites
Round 2 Oct 29, 2010 vs Troeng
Round 1 Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen
Round 3 Jul 02, 2005 vs Machado

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Leites 8.8
fighter Watson 7.6
Fast finishes by Leites
513 seconds Oct 29, 2010 vs Troeng
147 seconds May 07, 2010 vs Taylor
227 seconds Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 3, 2013UFC 163
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 SUBX
2,0331,945
2,0711,908
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Leites
legend Watson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus