UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Marquardt vs Alvey

2,037

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Marquardt

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
57% chance Marquardt
WILL WIN

1,987

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Marquardt
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.2 Around 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.2 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Sam Alvey
Significantly heavier hands 9.1 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 30 years vs 37 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Marquardt on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvey’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Marquardt
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Marquardt has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Marquardt is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Marquardt has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Alvey on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Marquardt’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Sam
Alvey
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvey has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvey is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvey is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Marquardt 8.2
fighter Alvey 9.1
Great knockouts by Alvey
Round 5 Oct 04, 2013 vs South
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs O'Malley
Round 4 Aug 01, 2009 vs Honneger

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Marquardt 7.9
fighter Alvey 6.2
Great submissions by Marquardt
Round 2 Feb 02, 2008 vs Horn
Round 2 Oct 10, 2006 vs Wallace
Round 3 May 01, 2005 vs Takeuchi

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Marquardt 8.6
fighter Alvey 7.9
Fast finishes by Marquardt
208 seconds Sep 15, 2010 vs Palhares
21 seconds Aug 29, 2009 vs Maia
82 seconds Sep 06, 2008 vs Kampmann
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Marquardt
legend Alvey
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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