UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Tibau vs Johnson

2,036

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Tibau

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
52% chance Tibau
WILL WIN

2,023

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gleison Tibau
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.6 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.8 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.6 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Michael Johnson
Much heavier hands 8.3 vs 6.7 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 187 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 32 years vs 35 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Tibau on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gleison
Tibau
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Tibau Johnson
Significant Strikes57
Tibau's average striking offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Tibau's excellent takedown offense will dominate Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Tibau is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Tibau is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Tibau has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Tibau’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
Johnson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Johnson Tibau
Significant Strikes60
Johnson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Tibau's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Johnson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Tibau's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Tibau 8.2
fighter Johnson 8.6
Great striking by Johnson
22 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
116 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Lauzon
17 strikes Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Tibau 9.2
fighter Johnson 7.8
Great takedowns by Tibau
2 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Varner
5 takedowns Oct 13, 2012 vs Trinaldo
2 takedowns Feb 07, 2009 vs Clementi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Tibau 6.7
fighter Johnson 8.3
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 2 Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
Round 2 Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
Round 1 Oct 03, 2009 vs Derrow

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Tibau 7.8
fighter Johnson 6.6
Great submissions by Tibau
Round 2 May 18, 2013 vs Cholish
Round 2 May 28, 2011 vs Oliveira
Round 1 Feb 07, 2009 vs Clementi

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Tibau 7.9
fighter Johnson 8.0
Fast finishes by Johnson
392 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Tibau
366 seconds Oct 05, 2012 vs Castillo
196 seconds Apr 10, 2009 vs French
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 28, 2013UFC 168
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
DECX
2,0581,906
1,9881,977
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Tibau
legend Johnson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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