UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Tibau vs Alves

2,036

CageRank

WINNER
Alves

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
52% chance Alves
WILL WIN

2,049

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Thiago Alves
Much heavier hands 8.0 vs 6.7 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Gleison Tibau
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.9 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.6 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Slightly longer reach 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Alves on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Tibau’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Alves
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alves Tibau
Significant Strikes75
Alves's excellent striking offense will dominate Tibau's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Alves's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Tibau's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alves is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alves is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alves has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Tibau on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alves’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gleison
Tibau
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Tibau Alves
Significant Strikes56
Tibau's average striking offense is matched by Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Tibau's excellent takedown offense will dominate Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Tibau is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Tibau is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Tibau has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alves 9.0
fighter Tibau 8.2
Great striking by Alves
80 strikes Oct 25, 2008 vs Koscheck
10 strikes Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
17 strikes Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alves 7.9
fighter Tibau 9.2
Great takedowns by Tibau
2 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Varner
5 takedowns Oct 13, 2012 vs Trinaldo
2 takedowns Feb 07, 2009 vs Clementi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alves 8.0
fighter Tibau 6.7
Great knockouts by Alves
Round 2 Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
Round 2 Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
Round 2 Nov 17, 2007 vs Lytle

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alves 6.9
fighter Tibau 7.8
Great submissions by Tibau
Round 2 May 18, 2013 vs Cholish
Round 2 May 28, 2011 vs Oliveira
Round 1 Feb 07, 2009 vs Clementi

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alves 8.3
fighter Tibau 7.9
Fast finishes by Alves
362 seconds Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
334 seconds Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
145 seconds Nov 19, 2005 vs Chalangov
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
DECX
1,5501,500
1,5931,457
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alves
legend Tibau
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus