UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Tibau vs Diaz

2,036

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
66% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 6.7 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.5 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Gleison Tibau
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.6 More than 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Tibau’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 12:34, how much damage will he do? Diaz Tibau
Significant Strikes82
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Tibau's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 113 Significant Strikes in 12:34
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Tibau's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:34
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Tibau on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gleison
Tibau
In 12:34, how much damage will he do? Tibau Diaz
Significant Strikes56
Tibau's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 113 Significant Strikes in 12:34
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Tibau's excellent takedown offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:34
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Tibau is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Tibau is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Tibau has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Tibau 8.2
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Tibau 9.2
Great takedowns by Tibau
2 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Varner
5 takedowns Oct 13, 2012 vs Trinaldo
2 takedowns Feb 07, 2009 vs Clementi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Tibau 6.7
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Tibau 7.8
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Tibau 7.9
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 18, 2006UFC 65
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
XR1 KO
1,8141,898
1,7751,936
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Tibau
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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