UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maynard vs Diaz

2,005

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
57% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 6.5 More than 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.3 More than 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.4 More than 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.4 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
A lot taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 32 years vs 37 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.4 vs 7.2 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Gray Maynard
Much better takedown defense 9.6 vs 7.9 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maynard’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 8:23, how much damage will he do? Diaz Maynard
Significant Strikes54
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Maynard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:23
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Maynard's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:23
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Maynard on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gray
Maynard
In 8:23, how much damage will he do? Maynard Diaz
Significant Strikes36
Maynard's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:23
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Maynard's average takedown offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:23
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maynard is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maynard is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maynard has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Maynard 8.5
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Maynard 8.5
Great takedowns by Maynard
1 takedown Jun 22, 2012 vs Guida
5 takedowns Aug 28, 2010 vs Florian
5 takedowns Oct 25, 2008 vs Clementi

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Maynard 7.2
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Markham
Round 1 May 05, 2006 vs Rael

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Maynard 6.5
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Maynard 7.3
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 30, 2013TUF 18 Finale
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
DECX
2,0651,997
2,0052,056
January 11, 2010UFC Fight Night 20
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
DECX
2,0291,922
2,0641,887
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Maynard
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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