UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Herman vs Natal

1,990

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Herman

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
62% chance Herman
WILL WIN

1,906

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ed Herman
Much stronger jaw 9.0 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Rafael Natal
Much harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Slightly younger 35 years vs 37 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly longer reach 193 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Herman on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Natal’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ed
Herman
In 12:13, how much damage will he do? Herman Natal
Significant Strikes42
Herman's average striking offense won't be a factor against Natal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 110 Significant Strikes in 12:13
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Herman's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Natal's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:13
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Herman is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Herman has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Herman is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Natal on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Herman’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rafael
Natal
In 12:13, how much damage will he do? Natal Herman
Significant Strikes66
Natal's good striking offense may be a factor against Herman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 110 Significant Strikes in 12:13
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Natal's average takedown offense is matched by Herman's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:13
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Natal is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Natal is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Natal has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Herman 8.5
fighter Natal 8.8
Great striking by Natal
39 strikes Sep 04, 2013 vs Troeng
64 strikes Jan 26, 2013 vs Spencer
43 strikes Aug 06, 2011 vs Bradley

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Herman 8.5
fighter Natal 8.3
Great takedowns by Herman
1 takedown Aug 14, 2011 vs Noke
5 takedowns Apr 18, 2009 vs Loiseau
2 takedowns Nov 17, 2007 vs Doerksen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Herman 7.3
fighter Natal 6.8
Great knockouts by Herman
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Credeur
Round 3 Nov 17, 2007 vs Doerksen
Round 1 Jul 23, 2005 vs Menne

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Herman 8.1
fighter Natal 7.6
Great submissions by Herman
Round 2 Feb 04, 2012 vs Starks
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Noke
Round 2 Aug 28, 2004 vs Ebersole

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Herman 8.1
fighter Natal 7.5
Fast finishes by Herman
255 seconds Aug 14, 2011 vs Noke
48 seconds Jun 04, 2011 vs Credeur
639 seconds Nov 17, 2007 vs Doerksen
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 10, 2014UFC Fight Night 40
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Herman
legend Natal
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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