UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Velasquez vs Jones

2,220

CageRank

WINNER
Jones

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
71% chance Jones
WILL WIN

2,377

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Jones
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.7 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much longer reach 215 cm vs 196 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 9.9 vs 9.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 9.7 vs 9.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 29 years vs 34 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 9.2 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Much heavier hands 10.0 vs 8.5 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 10.0 vs 9.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier 241 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Jones on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Jones
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Jones Velasquez
Significant Strikes67
Jones's excellent striking offense is matched by Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Jones's excellent takedown offense is matched by Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jones has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jones’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Velasquez Jones
Significant Strikes86
Velasquez's excellent striking offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Jones's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Jones 9.6
fighter Velasquez 10.0
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Jones 9.4
fighter Velasquez 9.2
Great takedowns by Jones
3 takedowns Apr 27, 2013 vs Sonnen
1 takedown Apr 21, 2012 vs Evans
2 takedowns Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Jones 8.6
fighter Velasquez 10.0
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Jones 8.2
fighter Velasquez 6.7
Great submissions by Jones
Round 4 Sep 22, 2012 vs Belfort
Round 2 Dec 10, 2011 vs Machida
Round 4 Sep 24, 2011 vs Jackson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Jones 8.9
fighter Velasquez 9.4
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Jones
legend Velasquez
Read More
Velasquez vs Miocic
Fantasy Cage Match
Jones vs St. Pierre
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 10 comments.
I see you have logical opinion oppossed to having a useless insult to impose your own emotional opinion (SARCASM).
You have a dumb brain Cain WOULD dominate bones like hulk and a rat.
Why is everyone judging this fight by size anf weight? Just because Cain Valasquez weighs more that doesn't mean he would "annihilate" Jon Jones. As matter of fact Jon Jones is more well rounded and has alot more tricks up his sleeve than Cain. Cain Valasquez still has a chance being real diverse in his stand up aspect and ground. Cain Valasquez has extremely great Boxing,Kickboxing and Wrestling skills and can take hard hits. His scrambling skill would help him aswell in this fight but I still personally feel Jon Jones may get him. Jon Jones has a great dictation of distance like Cain Valasquez but has better range control and trickier strikes. Jon Jones's Wrestling is slightly better than Cain having a better takedown and spawl. Now Cain could close the distance with uppercuts,knees,any level kicks and single collar strikes much like Daniel Cormier. He could also more than likely attempt to clinch fight with Jones which Cain could take him down or utilize the cage to help. But Jon Jones may likely use the clinch to his advantage. I think this would be a great fight.
pelerrrrrrrrrr
Hey I wish you guys would stop fanboying at look at the matchup rationally.
Jones will hold his opponent hand, even my wife always win when she does that.
I'm a Bones fan, but Cain would likely beat him up pretty badly.. Cain's arms are as big as Bones thighs, his cardio is never-ending, and he doesn't take a break in action.
If Jon moved up I think this is likely, but at that weight? lmao
this shit is retarded. cain would annihilate him. way to put together an algorithm based on retardation.
All this analysis...., Cain would destroy Jones. He s in LHW, beating up saller opponents for a reason. Even Frank Mir would twist him into a pretzel
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