UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Velasquez vs O'Brien

2,220

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Velasquez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
88% chance Velasquez
WILL WIN

1,879

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Much heavier hands 10.0 vs 7.1 More than 40% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 10.0 vs 7.7 Around 30% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 7.6 Around 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 8.6 vs 8.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 241 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger jaw 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Advantages for Jake O'Brien
Significantly better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.7 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 191 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Slightly younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against O'Brien’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 5:29, how much damage will he do? Velasquez O'Brien
Significant Strikes36
Velasquez's excellent striking offense will dominate O'Brien's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 49 Significant Strikes in 5:29
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense will dominate O'Brien's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:29
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
O'Brien on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jake
O'Brien
In 5:29, how much damage will he do? O'Brien Velasquez
Significant Strikes6
O'Brien's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 49 Significant Strikes in 5:29
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
O'Brien's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:29
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
O'Brien is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
O'Brien is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
O'Brien is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter O'Brien 7.7
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Velasquez 9.2
fighter O'Brien 8.8
Great takedowns by Velasquez
2 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
11 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
5 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Rothwell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter O'Brien 7.1
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Velasquez 6.7
fighter O'Brien 7.3
Great submissions by O'Brien
Round 1 Mar 31, 2012 vs Shaw
Round 2 Feb 20, 2010 vs Hess
Round 1 Jun 23, 2006 vs Harman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Velasquez 9.4
fighter O'Brien 7.6
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 19, 2008UFC Fight Night 14
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR2 KO
1,6931,858
1,7651,786
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Velasquez
legend O'Brien
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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