UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Velasquez vs dos Santos

2,220

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Velasquez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
68% chance Velasquez
WILL WIN

2,091

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 7.7 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly fast finishes 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 10.0 vs 9.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier hands 10.0 vs 9.2 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Junior dos Santos
A lot taller 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.2 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly better submission offense 6.9 vs 6.7 Almost the same
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against dos Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 11:25, how much damage will he do? Velasquez dos Santos
Significant Strikes77
Velasquez's excellent striking offense will dominate dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:25
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense will dominate dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:25
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
dos Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Junior
dos Santos
In 11:25, how much damage will he do? dos Santos Velasquez
Significant Strikes51
dos Santos's excellent striking offense is matched by Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:25
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
dos Santos's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:25
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
dos Santos has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
dos Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
dos Santos is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter dos Santos 9.6
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Velasquez 9.2
fighter dos Santos 7.7
Great takedowns by Velasquez
2 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
11 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
5 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Rothwell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Velasquez 10.0
fighter dos Santos 9.2
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Velasquez 6.7
fighter dos Santos 6.9
Great submissions by dos Santos
Round 3 Sep 19, 2009 vs Filipovic
Round 1 Dec 09, 2006 vs Maiorino

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Velasquez 9.4
fighter dos Santos 8.6
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 19, 2013UFC 166
team
VS
team
R5 KOX
R1 KOX
2,1762,135
2,2202,091
December 29, 2012UFC 155
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
XR2 KO
2,0642,167
2,1282,103
November 12, 2011UFC on Fox 1
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR2 KO
2,0512,084
2,0062,129
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Velasquez
legend dos Santos
Read More
Velasquez vs Jones
Fantasy Cage Match
dos Santos vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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