UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Johnson vs Hardy

2,249

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
81% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

1,995

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Anthony Johnson
Fast finishes 9.1 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 205 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 198 cm vs 188 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Slightly younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Dan Hardy
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better submission offense 6.7 vs 6.5 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hardy’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Johnson
In 10:45, how much damage will he do? Johnson Hardy
Significant Strikes59
Johnson's good striking offense may be a factor against Hardy's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:45
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Johnson's average takedown offense is matched by Hardy's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:45
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Hardy on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dan
Hardy
In 10:45, how much damage will he do? Hardy Johnson
Significant Strikes35
Hardy's average striking offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:45
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Hardy's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:45
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hardy has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hardy is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hardy is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.9
fighter Hardy 8.5
Great striking by Johnson
16 strikes Oct 01, 2011 vs Brenneman
20 strikes Mar 26, 2011 vs Hardy
10 strikes Oct 24, 2009 vs Yoshida

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 8.7
fighter Hardy 7.8
Great takedowns by Johnson
4 takedowns Dec 07, 2013 vs Kyle
4 takedowns Mar 26, 2011 vs Hardy
3 takedowns Dec 13, 2008 vs Burns

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 9.7
fighter Hardy 8.2
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 1 Jan 18, 2014 vs Kyle
Round 1 Nov 03, 2012 vs Linderman
Round 1 Oct 01, 2011 vs Brenneman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 6.5
fighter Hardy 6.7
Great submissions by Hardy
Round 1 Dec 08, 2007 vs Garcia
Round 2 Apr 28, 2007 vs Ni
Round 2 Jan 29, 2005 vs Doski

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 9.1
fighter Hardy 7.8
Fast finishes by Johnson
238 seconds Nov 03, 2012 vs Linderman
169 seconds Oct 01, 2011 vs Brenneman
41 seconds Oct 24, 2009 vs Yoshida
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 26, 2011UFC Fight Night 24
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR1 KO
1,8822,056
1,9551,983
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Hardy
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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