UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Johnson vs Velasquez

2,249

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

2,220

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Anthony Johnson
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 9.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Slightly younger 33 years vs 35 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly longer reach 198 cm vs 196 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Cain Velasquez
Better striker 10.0 vs 8.9 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 241 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Heavier hands 10.0 vs 9.7 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission offense 6.7 vs 6.5 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Better submission defense 8.6 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Velasquez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Johnson
In 10:18, how much damage will he do? Johnson Velasquez
Significant Strikes30
Johnson's good striking offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:18
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Johnson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Velasquez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:18
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Velasquez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Cain
Velasquez
In 10:18, how much damage will he do? Velasquez Johnson
Significant Strikes68
Velasquez's excellent striking offense will dominate Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 93 Significant Strikes in 10:18
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Velasquez's excellent takedown offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:18
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Velasquez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Velasquez is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Velasquez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.9
fighter Velasquez 10.0
Great striking by Velasquez
18 strikes May 25, 2013 vs Silva
111 strikes Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
23 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 8.7
fighter Velasquez 9.2
Great takedowns by Velasquez
2 takedowns Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
11 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs dos Santos
5 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Rothwell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 9.7
fighter Velasquez 10.0
Great knockouts by Velasquez
Round 5 Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
Round 1 May 25, 2013 vs Silva
Round 1 Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 9.1
fighter Velasquez 9.4
Fast finishes by Velasquez
1389 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs dos Santos
81 seconds May 25, 2013 vs Silva
140 seconds Feb 20, 2010 vs Nogueira
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Velasquez
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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