UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Johnson vs Rogerio Nogueira

2,249

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Johnson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
74% chance Johnson
WILL WIN

2,064

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Anthony Johnson
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much heavier hands 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.1 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 33 years vs 40 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Significantly better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.5 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Johnson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rogerio Nogueira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Johnson
In 9:39, how much damage will he do? Johnson Rogerio Nogueira
Significant Strikes42
Johnson's good striking offense is matched by Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:39
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Johnson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rogerio Nogueira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:39
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Johnson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Johnson is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Johnson is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rogerio Nogueira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Johnson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Antonio
Rogerio Nogueira
In 9:39, how much damage will he do? Rogerio Nogueira Johnson
Significant Strikes38
Rogerio Nogueira's good striking offense is matched by Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:39
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Rogerio Nogueira's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Johnson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:39
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rogerio Nogueira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rogerio Nogueira has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Johnson 8.9
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.8
Great striking by Johnson
16 strikes Oct 01, 2011 vs Brenneman
20 strikes Mar 26, 2011 vs Hardy
10 strikes Oct 24, 2009 vs Yoshida

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Johnson 8.7
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.5
Great takedowns by Johnson
4 takedowns Dec 07, 2013 vs Kyle
4 takedowns Mar 26, 2011 vs Hardy
3 takedowns Dec 13, 2008 vs Burns

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Johnson 9.7
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
Great knockouts by Johnson
Round 1 Jan 18, 2014 vs Kyle
Round 1 Nov 03, 2012 vs Linderman
Round 1 Oct 01, 2011 vs Brenneman

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Johnson 6.5
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 7.3
Great submissions by Rogerio Nogueira
Round 3 May 09, 2009 vs Staring
Round 1 Apr 23, 2005 vs Henderson
Round 1 Mar 09, 2002 vs Theobald

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Johnson 9.1
fighter Rogerio Nogueira 8.2
Fast finishes by Johnson
238 seconds Nov 03, 2012 vs Linderman
169 seconds Oct 01, 2011 vs Brenneman
41 seconds Oct 24, 2009 vs Yoshida
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
July 26, 2014UFC on Fox 12
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Johnson
legend Rogerio Nogueira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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