UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Griffin vs Rua

2,076

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Griffin

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
58% chance Griffin
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Forrest Griffin
Much better submission offense 7.8 vs 6.5 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 191 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 196 cm vs 193 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 6.7 Around 40% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.7 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly better striker 9.3 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Slightly younger 36 years vs 38 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Griffin on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Forrest
Griffin
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Griffin Rua
Significant Strikes64
Griffin's excellent striking offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Griffin's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Griffin is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Griffin has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Griffin has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Griffin’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Rua Griffin
Significant Strikes90
Rua's excellent striking offense will dominate Griffin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Rua's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Griffin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Griffin 9.2
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Griffin 7.7
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by Rua
8 takedowns Dec 31, 2006 vs Nakamura
7 takedowns Jun 26, 2005 vs Rogerio Nogueira
1 takedown Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Griffin 6.7
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Griffin 7.8
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Griffin
Round 3 Sep 22, 2007 vs Rua
Round 1 Jun 04, 2005 vs Mahood
Round 1 Jul 31, 2003 vs Fontes Braga

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Griffin 7.8
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 27, 2011UFC 134
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
DECX
2,1032,076
2,0492,130
September 22, 2007UFC 76
team
VS
team
R3 SUBX
XR1 KO
1,9242,108
1,9982,034
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Griffin
legend Rua
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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