UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nakamura vs Rua

1,883

CageRank

WINNER
Rua

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
69% chance Rua
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.6 Around 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 35 years vs 38 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Kazuhiro Nakamura
Better submission offense 6.9 vs 6.5 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.4 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakamura’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 11:01, how much damage will he do? Rua Nakamura
Significant Strikes65
Rua's excellent striking offense will dominate Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:01
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Rua's average takedown offense is matched by Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:01
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Nakamura on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kazuhiro
Nakamura
In 11:01, how much damage will he do? Nakamura Rua
Significant Strikes27
Nakamura's average striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 99 Significant Strikes in 11:01
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Nakamura's average takedown offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:01
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakamura is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nakamura is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Nakamura is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Rua 9.3
fighter Nakamura 8.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Rua 8.3
fighter Nakamura 8.7
Great takedowns by Nakamura
3 takedowns Jul 10, 2010 vs Amoussou
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2005 vs Kondo
4 takedowns Aug 15, 2004 vs Bustamante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Rua 9.3
fighter Nakamura 7.6
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Rua 6.5
fighter Nakamura 6.9
Great submissions by Nakamura
Round 3 Nov 24, 2013 vs Sakuragi
Round 1 Jul 01, 2006 vs Santos
Round 1 May 23, 2004 vs Arrab

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Rua 8.8
fighter Nakamura 7.4
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 31, 2006Pride FC - Shockwave 2006
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XR2 KO
1,9502,049
1,9142,085
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Rua
legend Nakamura
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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