UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - dos Santos vs Carwin

2,091

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
dos Santos

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
78% chance dos Santos
WILL WIN

1,875

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Junior dos Santos
Significantly better striker 9.6 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly younger 33 years vs 42 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier hands 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Shane Carwin
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 253 lbs vs 239 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission offense 7.4 vs 6.9 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
dos Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Carwin’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Junior
dos Santos
In 10:51, how much damage will he do? dos Santos Carwin
Significant Strikes68
dos Santos's excellent striking offense will dominate Carwin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:51
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
dos Santos's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Carwin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:51
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
dos Santos has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
dos Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
dos Santos is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Carwin on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against dos Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shane
Carwin
In 10:51, how much damage will he do? Carwin dos Santos
Significant Strikes51
Carwin's excellent striking offense will dominate dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:51
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Carwin's average takedown offense won't be a factor against dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:51
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Carwin has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Carwin is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Carwin is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter dos Santos 9.6
fighter Carwin 9.0
Great striking by dos Santos
59 strikes May 26, 2012 vs Mir
8 strikes Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
70 strikes Sep 19, 2009 vs Filipovic

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter dos Santos 7.7
fighter Carwin 8.4
Great takedowns by Carwin
1 takedown Oct 18, 2008 vs Wain
1 takedown Oct 14, 2005 vs Jones

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter dos Santos 9.2
fighter Carwin 8.4
Great knockouts by dos Santos
Round 2 May 26, 2012 vs Mir
Round 1 Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
Round 1 Oct 25, 2008 vs Werdum

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter dos Santos 6.9
fighter Carwin 7.4
Great submissions by Carwin
Round 1 Oct 27, 2007 vs Richards
Round 1 Jun 24, 2006 vs Guillen
Round 1 Oct 14, 2005 vs Jones

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter dos Santos 8.6
fighter Carwin 9.0
Fast finishes by Carwin
228 seconds Mar 27, 2010 vs Mir
69 seconds Mar 07, 2009 vs Gonzaga
44 seconds May 24, 2008 vs Wellisch
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 11, 2011UFC 131
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R2 KOX
2,0541,905
2,0841,875
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend dos Santos
legend Carwin
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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