UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - dos Santos vs Nelson

2,091

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
dos Santos

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
64% chance dos Santos
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Junior dos Santos
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
A lot taller 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Younger 33 years vs 40 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 7.7 vs 7.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Roy Nelson
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier 248 lbs vs 239 lbs Around 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.4 Almost the same
dos Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Junior
dos Santos
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? dos Santos Nelson
Significant Strikes110
dos Santos's excellent striking offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
dos Santos's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
dos Santos has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
dos Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
dos Santos has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against dos Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roy
Nelson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nelson dos Santos
Significant Strikes48
Nelson's average striking offense won't be a factor against dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter dos Santos 9.6
fighter Nelson 8.4
Great striking by dos Santos
59 strikes May 26, 2012 vs Mir
8 strikes Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
70 strikes Sep 19, 2009 vs Filipovic

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter dos Santos 7.7
fighter Nelson 7.6
Great takedowns by dos Santos
1 takedown May 25, 2013 vs Hunt
2 takedowns Jun 11, 2011 vs Carwin
1 takedown Aug 07, 2010 vs Nelson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter dos Santos 9.2
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great knockouts by Nelson
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Herman
Round 1 Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter dos Santos 6.9
fighter Nelson 6.7
Great submissions by dos Santos
Round 3 Sep 19, 2009 vs Filipovic
Round 1 Dec 09, 2006 vs Maiorino

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter dos Santos 8.6
fighter Nelson 9.2
Fast finishes by Nelson
123 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
51 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Herman
39 seconds Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 7, 2010UFC 117
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 KOX
2,0151,941
2,0541,901
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend dos Santos
legend Nelson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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