UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Werdum vs Nelson

2,192

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Werdum

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
76% chance Werdum
WILL WIN

1,990

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fabricio Werdum
Much harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better submission offense 8.5 vs 6.7 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 7.6 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
A lot taller 193 cm vs 183 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly longer reach 196 cm vs 185 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Advantages for Roy Nelson
Much heavier hands 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 248 lbs vs 242 lbs Almost the same
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Werdum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fabricio
Werdum
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Werdum Nelson
Significant Strikes97
Werdum's excellent striking offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Werdum's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Werdum is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Werdum has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Werdum has a chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Werdum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Roy
Nelson
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nelson Werdum
Significant Strikes42
Nelson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Werdum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Werdum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Werdum 9.1
fighter Nelson 8.4
Great striking by Werdum
32 strikes Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
31 strikes Jun 23, 2012 vs Russow
1 strike Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Werdum 8.6
fighter Nelson 7.6
Great takedowns by Werdum
1 takedown Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
3 takedowns Nov 07, 2009 vs Silva
1 takedown May 05, 2006 vs Overeem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Werdum 7.9
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great knockouts by Nelson
Round 1 Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
Round 1 May 26, 2012 vs Herman
Round 1 Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Werdum 8.5
fighter Nelson 6.7
Great submissions by Werdum
Round 2 Jun 08, 2013 vs Nogueira
Round 1 Jun 26, 2010 vs Emelianenko
Round 2 May 05, 2006 vs Overeem

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Werdum 9.0
fighter Nelson 9.2
Fast finishes by Nelson
123 seconds Apr 27, 2013 vs Kongo
51 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Herman
39 seconds Mar 31, 2010 vs Struve
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 4, 2012UFC 143
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
DECX
2,0271,907
2,0611,873
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Werdum
legend Nelson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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