UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Hughes vs Alves

2,008

CageRank

WINNER
Alves

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
56% chance Alves
WILL WIN

2,049

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Thiago Alves
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly younger 35 years vs 45 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Heavier hands 8.0 vs 7.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Matt Hughes
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.9 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.9 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.4 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Alves on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Hughes’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Alves
In 10:27, how much damage will he do? Alves Hughes
Significant Strikes57
Alves's excellent striking offense will dominate Hughes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 94 Significant Strikes in 10:27
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Alves's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Hughes's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:27
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alves has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Alves is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alves is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Hughes on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alves’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Hughes
In 10:27, how much damage will he do? Hughes Alves
Significant Strikes54
Hughes's good striking offense may be a factor against Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 94 Significant Strikes in 10:27
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Hughes's average takedown offense is matched by Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:27
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Hughes is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Hughes has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Hughes is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alves 9.0
fighter Hughes 8.8
Great striking by Alves
80 strikes Oct 25, 2008 vs Koscheck
10 strikes Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
17 strikes Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alves 7.9
fighter Hughes 8.5
Great takedowns by Hughes
1 takedown Nov 19, 2005 vs Riggs
1 takedown Apr 16, 2005 vs Trigg
5 takedowns Apr 25, 2003 vs Sherk

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alves 8.0
fighter Hughes 7.8
Great knockouts by Alves
Round 2 Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
Round 2 Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
Round 2 Nov 17, 2007 vs Lytle

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alves 6.9
fighter Hughes 8.2
Great submissions by Hughes
Round 1 Aug 07, 2010 vs Almeida
Round 1 Nov 19, 2005 vs Riggs
Round 1 Apr 16, 2005 vs Trigg

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alves 8.3
fighter Hughes 8.4
Fast finishes by Hughes
195 seconds Aug 07, 2010 vs Almeida
208 seconds Nov 19, 2005 vs Riggs
245 seconds Apr 16, 2005 vs Trigg
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 7, 2008UFC 85
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
R1 SUBX
2,0802,074
2,0292,125
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alves
legend Hughes
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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