UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Fitch vs Palhares

2,119

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Fitch

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
53% chance Fitch
WILL WIN

2,100

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Fitch
Better striker 8.2 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 8.3 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 188 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier hands 6.8 vs 6.3 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Advantages for Rousimar Palhares
Fast finishes 9.6 vs 7.2 Around 35% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 9.7 vs 7.2 Around 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Younger 36 years vs 38 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fitch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Palhares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Fitch
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Fitch Palhares
Significant Strikes50
Fitch's average striking offense won't be a factor against Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Fitch's excellent takedown offense will dominate Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Fitch is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Fitch is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Fitch has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Palhares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Fitch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rousimar
Palhares
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Palhares Fitch
Significant Strikes18
Palhares's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Fitch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Palhares's average takedown offense is matched by Fitch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Palhares is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Palhares has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Palhares is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Fitch 8.3
fighter Palhares 7.5
Great striking by Fitch
82 strikes Oct 13, 2012 vs Silva
29 strikes Aug 07, 2010 vs Alves
25 strikes Sep 22, 2007 vs Sanchez

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Fitch 9.3
fighter Palhares 8.3
Great takedowns by Fitch
6 takedowns Oct 13, 2012 vs Silva
9 takedowns Aug 07, 2010 vs Alves
3 takedowns Sep 22, 2007 vs Sanchez

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Fitch 6.8
fighter Palhares 6.3
Great knockouts by Fitch
Round 2 Jun 28, 2006 vs Alves
Round 2 Dec 17, 2004 vs Seal
Round 1 Sep 07, 2002 vs Tix

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Fitch 7.2
fighter Palhares 9.7
Great submissions by Palhares
Round 1 Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Round 2 Dec 12, 2009 vs Linhares

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Fitch 7.2
fighter Palhares 9.6
Fast finishes by Palhares
31 seconds Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
404 seconds Mar 03, 2011 vs Branch
45 seconds Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 13, 2014WSOF 16
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Fitch
legend Palhares
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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