UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Fitch vs Alves

2,119

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Fitch

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
60% chance Fitch
WILL WIN

2,049

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jon Fitch
Much stronger takedown offense 9.3 vs 7.9 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly longer reach 188 cm vs 178 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.9 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Thiago Alves
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.3 vs 7.2 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 8.0 vs 6.8 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 33 years vs 39 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.2 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fitch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alves’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jon
Fitch
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Fitch Alves
Significant Strikes57
Fitch's average striking offense is matched by Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Fitch's excellent takedown offense will dominate Alves's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Fitch is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Fitch is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Fitch has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Alves on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Fitch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thiago
Alves
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Alves Fitch
Significant Strikes57
Alves's excellent striking offense is matched by Fitch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Alves's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Fitch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alves is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alves is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alves is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Fitch 8.3
fighter Alves 9.0
Great striking by Alves
80 strikes Oct 25, 2008 vs Koscheck
10 strikes Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
17 strikes Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Fitch 9.3
fighter Alves 7.9
Great takedowns by Fitch
6 takedowns Oct 13, 2012 vs Silva
9 takedowns Aug 07, 2010 vs Alves
3 takedowns Sep 22, 2007 vs Sanchez

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Fitch 6.8
fighter Alves 8.0
Great knockouts by Alves
Round 2 Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
Round 2 Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
Round 2 Nov 17, 2007 vs Lytle

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Fitch 7.2
fighter Alves 6.9
Great submissions by Fitch
Round 2 Jun 12, 2007 vs Carneiro
Round 2 Mar 03, 2007 vs Fioravanti
Round 2 Apr 06, 2006 vs Burkman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Fitch 7.2
fighter Alves 8.3
Fast finishes by Alves
362 seconds Jun 07, 2008 vs Hughes
334 seconds Apr 02, 2008 vs Parisyan
145 seconds Nov 19, 2005 vs Chalangov
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 7, 2010UFC 117
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
DECX
2,1982,123
2,2372,084
June 28, 2006UFC Fight Night 5
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
DECX
1,9801,887
2,0171,850
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Fitch
legend Alves
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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