UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gamburyan vs Diaz

1,881

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
73% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.1 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much taller 183 cm vs 165 cm More than 10% taller
Significantly heavier hands 7.4 vs 7.0 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 155 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 32 years vs 36 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Manny Gamburyan
Much better takedown defense 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 7.8 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gamburyan’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 10:46, how much damage will he do? Diaz Gamburyan
Significant Strikes65
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Gamburyan's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:46
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gamburyan's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:46
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Gamburyan on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Manny
Gamburyan
In 10:46, how much damage will he do? Gamburyan Diaz
Significant Strikes36
Gamburyan's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 97 Significant Strikes in 10:46
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Gamburyan's excellent takedown offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:46
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gamburyan is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gamburyan is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gamburyan has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Gamburyan 8.1
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Gamburyan 9.2
Great takedowns by Gamburyan
5 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Miller
6 takedowns Aug 04, 2012 vs Omigawa
7 takedowns Nov 18, 2009 vs Garcia

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Gamburyan 7.0
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Markham
Round 1 May 05, 2006 vs Rael

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Gamburyan 7.5
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Gamburyan 7.9
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 23, 2007TUF 5 Finale
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
R2 SUBX
1,7571,708
1,7001,765
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Gamburyan
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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