UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Machida vs Rua

2,164

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Machida

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
70% chance Machida
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Lyoto Machida
Much better takedown defense 9.6 vs 8.1 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 9.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 6.8 vs 6.5 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Significantly heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 8.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 35 years vs 39 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Machida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyoto
Machida
In 12:50, how much damage will he do? Machida Rua
Significant Strikes43
Machida's good striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 116 Significant Strikes in 12:50
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Machida's average takedown offense is matched by Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:50
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Machida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Machida has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Machida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 12:50, how much damage will he do? Rua Machida
Significant Strikes40
Rua's excellent striking offense is matched by Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 116 Significant Strikes in 12:50
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rua's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:50
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Machida 8.7
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Machida 8.0
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by Rua
8 takedowns Dec 31, 2006 vs Nakamura
7 takedowns Jun 26, 2005 vs Rogerio Nogueira
1 takedown Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Machida 8.6
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Machida 6.8
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Machida
Round 2 Dec 29, 2007 vs Thierry Sokoudjou
Round 1 Mar 14, 2004 vs McDonald

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Machida 8.2
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 8, 2010UFC 113
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
DECX
2,2122,073
2,1432,142
October 24, 2009UFC 104
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
DECX
2,1702,115
2,2122,073
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Machida
legend Rua
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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