UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Machida vs McDonald

2,164

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Machida

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
97% chance Machida
WILL WIN

1,537

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Lyoto Machida
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 7.2 Around 35% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much stronger jaw 9.6 vs 7.6 More than 25% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.6 vs 7.8 Around 25% better at avoiding being taken down
Much heavier hands 8.6 vs 7.2 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better submission defense 8.8 vs 7.0 More than 25% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.2 vs 7.3 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly younger 40 years vs 53 years Around 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly longer reach 188 cm vs 177 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Advantages for Michael McDonald
Stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 8.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 211 lbs vs 184 lbs Around 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission offense 7.1 vs 6.8 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Machida on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McDonald’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Lyoto
Machida
In 5:13, how much damage will he do? Machida McDonald
Significant Strikes24
Machida's good striking offense may be a factor against McDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 47 Significant Strikes in 5:13
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Machida's average takedown offense may be a factor against McDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:13
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Machida has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Machida is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Machida has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
McDonald on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Machida’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
McDonald
In 5:13, how much damage will he do? McDonald Machida
Significant Strikes7
McDonald's average striking offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 47 Significant Strikes in 5:13
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
McDonald's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Machida's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:13
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McDonald is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McDonald is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McDonald has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Machida 8.7
fighter McDonald 8.2
Great striking by Machida
27 strikes Feb 23, 2013 vs Henderson
35 strikes Oct 24, 2009 vs Rua
28 strikes May 23, 2009 vs Evans

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Machida 8.6
fighter McDonald 7.2
Great knockouts by Machida
Round 1 Oct 26, 2013 vs Munoz
Round 2 May 23, 2009 vs Evans
Round 1 Jan 31, 2009 vs Silva

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Machida 8.2
fighter McDonald 7.3
Fast finishes by Machida
190 seconds Oct 26, 2013 vs Munoz
537 seconds May 23, 2009 vs Evans
299 seconds Jan 31, 2009 vs Silva
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 14, 2004K-1 - Beast 2004
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
R2 KOX
1,7151,500
1,7381,478
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Machida
legend McDonald
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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