UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sotiropoulos vs Aoki

1,808

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
93% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.8 Around 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 7.8 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 8.1 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.5 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 34 years vs 39 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.3 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Longer reach 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Advantages for George Sotiropoulos
Better striker 8.4 vs 7.4 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Heavier hands 6.7 vs 6.1 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sotiropoulos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 6:15, how much damage will he do? Aoki Sotiropoulos
Significant Strikes11
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Sotiropoulos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 56 Significant Strikes in 6:15
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aoki's excellent takedown offense is matched by Sotiropoulos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:15
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Sotiropoulos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
George
Sotiropoulos
In 6:15, how much damage will he do? Sotiropoulos Aoki
Significant Strikes11
Sotiropoulos's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 56 Significant Strikes in 6:15
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Sotiropoulos's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 6:15
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sotiropoulos is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sotiropoulos has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sotiropoulos is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aoki 7.4
fighter Sotiropoulos 8.4
Great striking by Sotiropoulos
19 strikes Nov 20, 2010 vs Lauzon
48 strikes Jul 03, 2010 vs Pellegrino
20 strikes Feb 20, 2010 vs Stevenson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Sotiropoulos 8.5
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Sotiropoulos 6.7
Great knockouts by Sotiropoulos
Round 2 Apr 02, 2008 vs Mitichyan
Round 1 Jun 29, 2007 vs Rollins

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Sotiropoulos 8.1
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Sotiropoulos 7.8
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 DQ
XR2 SUB
1,7291,891
1,7011,919
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Sotiropoulos
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus