UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Mir vs dos Santos

1,948

CageRank

WINNER
dos Santos

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
69% chance dos Santos
WILL WIN

2,091

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Junior dos Santos
Much heavier hands 9.2 vs 7.2 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Taller 193 cm vs 191 cm Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Frank Mir
Significantly better submission offense 8.1 vs 6.9 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly heavier 261 lbs vs 239 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.7 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
dos Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Mir’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Junior
dos Santos
In 11:22, how much damage will he do? dos Santos Mir
Significant Strikes74
dos Santos's excellent striking offense will dominate Mir's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:22
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
dos Santos's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Mir's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:22
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
dos Santos has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
dos Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
dos Santos is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Mir on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against dos Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Frank
Mir
In 11:22, how much damage will he do? Mir dos Santos
Significant Strikes43
Mir's good striking offense is matched by dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:22
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Mir's average takedown offense won't be a factor against dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:22
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Mir is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Mir has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Mir is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter dos Santos 9.6
fighter Mir 8.7
Great striking by dos Santos
59 strikes May 26, 2012 vs Mir
8 strikes Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
70 strikes Sep 19, 2009 vs Filipovic

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter dos Santos 7.7
fighter Mir 8.1
Great takedowns by Mir
1 takedown Dec 10, 2011 vs Nogueira
6 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Nelson
1 takedown Dec 27, 2008 vs Nogueira

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter dos Santos 9.2
fighter Mir 7.2
Great knockouts by dos Santos
Round 2 May 26, 2012 vs Mir
Round 1 Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
Round 1 Oct 25, 2008 vs Werdum

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter dos Santos 6.9
fighter Mir 8.1
Great submissions by Mir
Round 1 Dec 10, 2011 vs Nogueira
Round 1 Dec 12, 2009 vs Kongo
Round 1 Jun 19, 2004 vs Sylvia

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter dos Santos 8.6
fighter Mir 8.4
Fast finishes by dos Santos
484 seconds May 26, 2012 vs Mir
64 seconds Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
81 seconds Oct 25, 2008 vs Werdum
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 26, 2012UFC 146
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
XR2 KO
2,0442,129
2,0062,167
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend dos Santos
legend Mir
Read More
Mir vs Werdum
Fantasy Cage Match
dos Santos vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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