UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Elkins vs Ludwig

1,986

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Elkins

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
80% chance Elkins
WILL WIN

1,750

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Darren Elkins
Much better takedown defense 9.1 vs 7.5 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.0 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 8.8 vs 7.6 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 8.5 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission defense 8.9 vs 8.1 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 33 years vs 39 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.6 vs 7.3 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Duane Ludwig
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Elkins on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ludwig’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Darren
Elkins
In 7:49, how much damage will he do? Elkins Ludwig
Significant Strikes30
Elkins's average striking offense is matched by Ludwig's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 70 Significant Strikes in 7:49
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Elkins's average takedown offense may be a factor against Ludwig's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:49
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Elkins has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Elkins is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Elkins has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Ludwig on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Elkins’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Duane
Ludwig
In 7:49, how much damage will he do? Ludwig Elkins
Significant Strikes35
Ludwig's good striking offense may be a factor against Elkins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 70 Significant Strikes in 7:49
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Ludwig's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Elkins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:49
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ludwig is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ludwig is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ludwig is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Elkins 8.3
fighter Ludwig 8.6
Great striking by Ludwig
123 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Sadollah
48 strikes Nov 21, 2008 vs Edwards
1 strike Jan 16, 2006 vs Goulet

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Elkins 8.4
fighter Ludwig 7.0
Great takedowns by Elkins
2 takedowns Aug 28, 2013 vs Hioki
6 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Siler
1 takedown Jun 11, 2011 vs Omigawa

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Elkins 7.6
fighter Ludwig 7.3
Great knockouts by Elkins
Round 1 Mar 16, 2013 vs Carvalho
Round 1 Mar 21, 2010 vs Ludwig
Round 1 Oct 10, 2009 vs Neville

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Elkins 7.1
fighter Ludwig 7.0
Great submissions by Elkins
Round 1 Aug 15, 2008 vs Klein
Round 1 Aug 24, 2007 vs Tsuboi
Round 1 Jan 24, 2007 vs Markam

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Elkins 8.0
fighter Ludwig 7.6
Fast finishes by Elkins
186 seconds Mar 16, 2013 vs Carvalho
44 seconds Mar 21, 2010 vs Ludwig
115 seconds Aug 24, 2007 vs Tsuboi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR2 KO
1,7931,815
1,8461,762
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Elkins
legend Ludwig
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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