UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Elkins vs Stephens

1,986

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Elkins

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
51% chance Elkins
WILL WIN

1,978

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Darren Elkins
Better submission offense 7.1 vs 6.5 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Jeremy Stephens
Heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.5 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Elkins on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Stephens’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Darren
Elkins
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Elkins Stephens
Significant Strikes47
Elkins's average striking offense won't be a factor against Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Elkins's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Elkins is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Elkins is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Elkins has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Stephens on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Elkins’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jeremy
Stephens
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Stephens Elkins
Significant Strikes65
Stephens's average striking offense is matched by Elkins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Stephens's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Elkins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Stephens has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Stephens is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Stephens is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Elkins 8.3
fighter Stephens 8.5
Great striking by Stephens
40 strikes Jan 25, 2014 vs Elkins
3 strikes Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
55 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Stout

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Elkins 8.4
fighter Stephens 8.0
Great takedowns by Elkins
2 takedowns Aug 28, 2013 vs Hioki
6 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Siler
1 takedown Jun 11, 2011 vs Omigawa

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Elkins 7.6
fighter Stephens 8.2
Great knockouts by Stephens
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
Round 3 Jan 01, 2011 vs Davis
Round 2 Jan 23, 2008 vs Miller

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Elkins 7.1
fighter Stephens 6.5
Great submissions by Elkins
Round 1 Aug 15, 2008 vs Klein
Round 1 Aug 24, 2007 vs Tsuboi
Round 1 Jan 24, 2007 vs Markam

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Elkins 8.0
fighter Stephens 8.0
Fast finishes by Elkins
186 seconds Mar 16, 2013 vs Carvalho
44 seconds Mar 21, 2010 vs Ludwig
115 seconds Aug 24, 2007 vs Tsuboi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
January 25, 2014UFC on Fox 10
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
DECX
2,0501,953
1,9862,017
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Elkins
legend Stephens
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus