UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sonnen vs Rua

2,132

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Sonnen

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
66% chance Sonnen
WILL WIN

2,020

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chael Sonnen
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.5 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Mauricio Rua
Much heavier hands 9.3 vs 7.4 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 36 years vs 40 years 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Sonnen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rua’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chael
Sonnen
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sonnen Rua
Significant Strikes50
Sonnen's good striking offense won't be a factor against Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Sonnen's excellent takedown offense will dominate Rua's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sonnen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sonnen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Sonnen has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Rua on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sonnen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mauricio
Rua
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Rua Sonnen
Significant Strikes57
Rua's excellent striking offense is matched by Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Rua's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rua has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rua is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rua is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Sonnen 8.8
fighter Rua 9.3
Great striking by Rua
16 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
17 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Machida
48 strikes Apr 23, 2005 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Sonnen 9.4
fighter Rua 8.3
Great takedowns by Sonnen
6 takedowns Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
4 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
1 takedown Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Sonnen 7.4
fighter Rua 9.3
Great knockouts by Rua
Round 1 Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
Round 1 May 08, 2010 vs Machida
Round 1 Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Sonnen 7.5
fighter Rua 6.5
Great submissions by Sonnen
Round 1 Aug 17, 2013 vs Rua
Round 2 Oct 08, 2011 vs Stann
Round 1 Feb 18, 2007 vs McKenzie

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Sonnen 8.1
fighter Rua 8.8
Fast finishes by Rua
113 seconds Aug 27, 2011 vs Griffin
215 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Machida
268 seconds Apr 18, 2009 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 17, 2013UFC Fight Night 26
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
DECX
2,1462,060
2,1842,023
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Sonnen
legend Rua
Read More
Sonnen vs Jackson
Fantasy Cage Match
Rua vs Mousasi
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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