UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sonnen vs Emelianenko

2,132

CageRank

WINNER
Emelianenko

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
58% chance Emelianenko
WILL WIN

2,189

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Fedor Emelianenko
Fast finishes 9.5 vs 8.1 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 222 lbs vs 205 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Chael Sonnen
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.0 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.6 Almost the same
Slightly taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Emelianenko on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sonnen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fedor
Emelianenko
In 7:27, how much damage will he do? Emelianenko Sonnen
Significant Strikes24
Emelianenko's excellent striking offense is matched by Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 67 Significant Strikes in 7:27
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Emelianenko's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:27
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Emelianenko has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Emelianenko has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Emelianenko is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sonnen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Emelianenko’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chael
Sonnen
In 7:27, how much damage will he do? Sonnen Emelianenko
Significant Strikes21
Sonnen's good striking offense won't be a factor against Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 67 Significant Strikes in 7:27
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Sonnen's excellent takedown offense is matched by Emelianenko's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:27
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sonnen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sonnen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sonnen has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Emelianenko 9.0
fighter Sonnen 8.8
Great striking by Emelianenko
50 strikes Aug 28, 2005 vs Filipovic
65 strikes Dec 31, 2004 vs Nogueira
79 strikes Mar 16, 2003 vs Nogueira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.0
fighter Sonnen 9.4
Great takedowns by Sonnen
6 takedowns Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
4 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
1 takedown Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Emelianenko 8.5
fighter Sonnen 7.4
Great knockouts by Emelianenko
Round 2 Nov 07, 2009 vs Rogers
Round 1 Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
Round 1 Nov 24, 2002 vs Herring

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Emelianenko 8.3
fighter Sonnen 7.5
Great submissions by Emelianenko
Round 1 Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
Round 1 Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Round 2 Oct 21, 2006 vs Coleman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Emelianenko 9.5
fighter Sonnen 8.1
Fast finishes by Emelianenko
194 seconds Jan 24, 2009 vs Arlovski
36 seconds Jul 19, 2008 vs Sylvia
178 seconds Apr 14, 2007 vs Lindland
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Emelianenko
legend Sonnen
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus