UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sonnen vs Evans

2,132

CageRank

WINNER
Evans

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
63% chance Evans
WILL WIN

2,222

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Rashad Evans
Significantly heavier hands 8.6 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 191 cm vs 188 cm Almost the same
Better striker 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Slightly younger 38 years vs 40 years 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Chael Sonnen
Better submission offense 7.5 vs 6.8 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 9.1 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Evans on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sonnen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rashad
Evans
In 12:04, how much damage will he do? Evans Sonnen
Significant Strikes35
Evans's good striking offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:04
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Evans's good takedown offense is matched by Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:04
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Evans has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Evans is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Evans has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sonnen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Evans’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chael
Sonnen
In 12:04, how much damage will he do? Sonnen Evans
Significant Strikes38
Sonnen's good striking offense won't be a factor against Evans's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:04
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sonnen's excellent takedown offense is matched by Evans's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:04
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sonnen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sonnen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sonnen has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Evans 8.9
fighter Sonnen 8.8
Great striking by Evans
20 strikes Nov 16, 2013 vs Sonnen
39 strikes Jun 15, 2013 vs Henderson
29 strikes May 29, 2010 vs Jackson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Evans 9.1
fighter Sonnen 9.4
Great takedowns by Sonnen
6 takedowns Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
4 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
1 takedown Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Evans 8.6
fighter Sonnen 7.4
Great knockouts by Evans
Round 1 Nov 16, 2013 vs Sonnen
Round 3 Dec 27, 2008 vs Griffin
Round 2 Sep 06, 2008 vs Liddell

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Evans 6.8
fighter Sonnen 7.5
Great submissions by Sonnen
Round 1 Aug 17, 2013 vs Rua
Round 2 Oct 08, 2011 vs Stann
Round 1 Feb 18, 2007 vs McKenzie

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Evans 8.2
fighter Sonnen 8.1
Fast finishes by Evans
245 seconds Nov 16, 2013 vs Sonnen
766 seconds Dec 27, 2008 vs Griffin
411 seconds Sep 06, 2008 vs Liddell
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 16, 2013UFC 167
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
DECX
2,1842,170
2,1322,222
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Evans
legend Sonnen
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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