UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sonnen vs Marquardt

2,132

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Sonnen

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
63% chance Sonnen
WILL WIN

2,037

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chael Sonnen
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.9 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.4 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Nate Marquardt
Much heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.7 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.5 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly younger 39 years vs 41 years Around 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Sonnen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Marquardt’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chael
Sonnen
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sonnen Marquardt
Significant Strikes65
Sonnen's good striking offense is matched by Marquardt's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Sonnen's excellent takedown offense is matched by Marquardt's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sonnen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sonnen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sonnen has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Marquardt on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sonnen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Marquardt
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Marquardt Sonnen
Significant Strikes42
Marquardt's good striking offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Marquardt's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Marquardt has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Marquardt is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Marquardt is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Sonnen 8.8
fighter Marquardt 8.8
Great striking by Marquardt
59 strikes Jul 14, 2012 vs Woodley
1 strike Aug 29, 2009 vs Maia
22 strikes Sep 06, 2008 vs Kampmann

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Sonnen 9.4
fighter Marquardt 8.4
Great takedowns by Sonnen
6 takedowns Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
4 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
1 takedown Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Sonnen 7.4
fighter Marquardt 8.2
Great knockouts by Marquardt
Round 4 Jul 14, 2012 vs Woodley
Round 1 Aug 29, 2009 vs Maia
Round 1 Sep 06, 2008 vs Kampmann

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Sonnen 7.5
fighter Marquardt 7.9
Great submissions by Marquardt
Round 2 Feb 02, 2008 vs Horn
Round 2 Oct 10, 2006 vs Wallace
Round 3 May 01, 2005 vs Takeuchi

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Sonnen 8.1
fighter Marquardt 8.6
Fast finishes by Marquardt
208 seconds Sep 15, 2010 vs Palhares
21 seconds Aug 29, 2009 vs Maia
82 seconds Sep 06, 2008 vs Kampmann
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 6, 2010UFC 109
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR1 SUB
2,1132,128
2,1652,076
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Sonnen
legend Marquardt
Read More
Sonnen vs Emelianenko
Fantasy Cage Match
Marquardt vs Grove
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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