UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sonnen vs Horn

2,132

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Sonnen

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
79% chance Sonnen
WILL WIN

1,897

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chael Sonnen
Better striker 8.7 vs 7.7 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.1 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much heavier hands 7.4 vs 6.5 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly younger 41 years vs 43 years Around 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Jeremy Horn
Much better submission offense 9.2 vs 7.5 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Sonnen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Horn’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chael
Sonnen
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sonnen Horn
Significant Strikes61
Sonnen's good striking offense is matched by Horn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Sonnen's excellent takedown offense will dominate Horn's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sonnen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sonnen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sonnen has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Horn on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sonnen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jeremy
Horn
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Horn Sonnen
Significant Strikes16
Horn's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Poor
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Horn's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Horn is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Horn has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Horn is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Sonnen 8.8
fighter Horn 7.7
Great striking by Sonnen
39 strikes Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
91 strikes Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
53 strikes Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Sonnen 9.4
fighter Horn 8.1
Great takedowns by Sonnen
6 takedowns Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
4 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
1 takedown Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Sonnen 7.4
fighter Horn 6.5
Great knockouts by Sonnen
Round 2 Jul 14, 2007 vs Suloev
Round 1 Aug 22, 2006 vs Credeur
Round 1 Feb 26, 2005 vs Ryan

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Sonnen 7.5
fighter Horn 9.2
Great submissions by Horn
Round 2 May 27, 2006 vs Sonnen
Round 1 Apr 29, 2005 vs Burkman
Round 1 Feb 28, 2004 vs Loiseau

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Sonnen 8.1
fighter Horn 8.7
Fast finishes by Horn
74 seconds Apr 29, 2005 vs Burkman
214 seconds May 06, 2004 vs Sonnen
520 seconds Sep 06, 2003 vs Griffin
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 27, 2006UFC 60
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,8552,057
1,8312,081
September 23, 2004SF 6 - Battleground in Reno
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR2 KO
1,7832,007
1,7622,028
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR2 SUB
1,8752,042
1,8472,070
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Sonnen
legend Horn
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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