UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sonnen vs Okami

2,132

CageRank

WINNER
Okami

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
53% chance Okami
WILL WIN

2,150

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Yushin Okami
Much better submission defense 9.8 vs 8.7 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.4 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.5 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 37 years vs 41 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly taller 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Slightly longer reach 191 cm vs 188 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Chael Sonnen
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission offense 7.5 vs 7.3 Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.1 vs 8.0 Almost the same
Okami on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sonnen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Yushin
Okami
In 12:43, how much damage will he do? Okami Sonnen
Significant Strikes24
Okami's average striking offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 114 Significant Strikes in 12:43
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Okami's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:43
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Okami is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Okami is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Okami has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Sonnen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Okami’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chael
Sonnen
In 12:43, how much damage will he do? Sonnen Okami
Significant Strikes59
Sonnen's good striking offense may be a factor against Okami's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 114 Significant Strikes in 12:43
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sonnen's excellent takedown offense is matched by Okami's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:43
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sonnen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sonnen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sonnen has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Okami 8.3
fighter Sonnen 8.8
Great striking by Sonnen
39 strikes Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
91 strikes Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
53 strikes Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Okami 8.4
fighter Sonnen 9.4
Great takedowns by Sonnen
6 takedowns Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
4 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
1 takedown Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Okami 7.9
fighter Sonnen 7.4
Great knockouts by Okami
Round 2 Aug 11, 2012 vs Roberts
Round 2 Mar 01, 2008 vs Tanner
Round 1 Jun 11, 2006 vs Takeuchi

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Okami 7.3
fighter Sonnen 7.5
Great submissions by Sonnen
Round 1 Aug 17, 2013 vs Rua
Round 2 Oct 08, 2011 vs Stann
Round 1 Feb 18, 2007 vs McKenzie

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Okami 8.0
fighter Sonnen 8.1
Fast finishes by Sonnen
287 seconds Aug 17, 2013 vs Rua
531 seconds Oct 08, 2011 vs Stann
513 seconds Jul 14, 2007 vs Suloev
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
October 24, 2009UFC 104
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XDEC
2,0542,119
2,1132,060
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Okami
legend Sonnen
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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