UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sonnen vs Maia

2,132

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Sonnen

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
54% chance Sonnen
WILL WIN

2,102

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chael Sonnen
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.0 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better striker 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 205 lbs vs 169 lbs More than 20% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier hands 7.4 vs 7.2 Almost the same
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Demian Maia
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 9.4 Almost the same
Sonnen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chael
Sonnen
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sonnen Maia
Significant Strikes62
Sonnen's good striking offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Sonnen's excellent takedown offense is matched by Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sonnen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sonnen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sonnen has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sonnen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Sonnen
Significant Strikes28
Maia's average striking offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Sonnen 8.8
fighter Maia 8.3
Great striking by Sonnen
39 strikes Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
91 strikes Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
53 strikes Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Sonnen 9.4
fighter Maia 9.7
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Sonnen 7.4
fighter Maia 7.2
Great knockouts by Sonnen
Round 2 Jul 14, 2007 vs Suloev
Round 1 Aug 22, 2006 vs Credeur
Round 1 Feb 26, 2005 vs Ryan

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Sonnen 7.5
fighter Maia 8.1
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Sonnen 8.1
fighter Maia 8.5
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 21, 2009UFC 95
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
DECX
2,0662,025
2,0102,081
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Sonnen
legend Maia
Read More
Sonnen vs Jackson
Fantasy Cage Match
Maia vs St. Pierre
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
comments powered by Disqus