UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Sonnen vs Filho

2,132

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Sonnen

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
88% chance Sonnen
WILL WIN

1,783

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Chael Sonnen
Better striker 8.7 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much harder to hit 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier hands 7.4 vs 6.9 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
A lot taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Significantly fast finishes 8.1 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 188 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 205 lbs vs 184 lbs More than 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission offense 7.5 vs 7.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Paulo Filho
Puts up a fight 9.8 vs 8.9 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Sonnen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Filho’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Chael
Sonnen
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Sonnen Filho
Significant Strikes62
Sonnen's good striking offense is matched by Filho's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Sonnen's excellent takedown offense is matched by Filho's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Sonnen is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Sonnen is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Sonnen has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Filho on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Sonnen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Paulo
Filho
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Filho Sonnen
Significant Strikes20
Filho's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Filho's good takedown offense is matched by Sonnen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Filho is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Filho is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Filho is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Sonnen 8.8
fighter Filho 7.9
Great striking by Sonnen
39 strikes Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
91 strikes Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
53 strikes Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Sonnen 9.4
fighter Filho 8.8
Great takedowns by Sonnen
6 takedowns Feb 06, 2010 vs Marquardt
4 takedowns Oct 24, 2009 vs Okami
1 takedown Nov 05, 2008 vs Filho

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Sonnen 7.4
fighter Filho 6.9
Great knockouts by Sonnen
Round 2 Jul 14, 2007 vs Suloev
Round 1 Aug 22, 2006 vs Credeur
Round 1 Feb 26, 2005 vs Ryan

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Sonnen 7.5
fighter Filho 7.3
Great submissions by Sonnen
Round 1 Aug 17, 2013 vs Rua
Round 2 Oct 08, 2011 vs Stann
Round 1 Feb 18, 2007 vs McKenzie

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Sonnen 8.1
fighter Filho 7.7
Fast finishes by Sonnen
287 seconds Aug 17, 2013 vs Rua
531 seconds Oct 08, 2011 vs Stann
513 seconds Jul 14, 2007 vs Suloev
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 5, 2008WEC 36
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR1 SUB
1,9952,151
2,0662,080
December 12, 2007WEC 31
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR1 SUB
2,0082,116
1,9732,151
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Sonnen
legend Filho
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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