UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gardner vs Aoki

1,466

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 1

prediction
99% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 6.2 Around 60% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 6.6 Around 45% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.6 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.0 More than 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.0 More than 25% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.0 More than 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
A lot taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.1 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 33 years vs 39 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for David Gardner
Better striker 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 155 lbs vs 153 lbs Almost the same
Heavier hands 6.3 vs 6.1 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gardner’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 4:11, how much damage will he do? Aoki Gardner
Significant Strikes9
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Gardner's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 38 Significant Strikes in 4:11
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Gardner's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 4:11
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Gardner on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
David
Gardner
In 4:11, how much damage will he do? Gardner Aoki
Significant Strikes6
Gardner's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 38 Significant Strikes in 4:11
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Gardner's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 4:11
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gardner is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gardner is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gardner is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Gardner 8.5
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Gardner 6.3
Great knockouts by Gardner
Round 1 Jul 17, 2008 vs Judes
Round 3 Sep 28, 2007 vs Barker
Round 1 Mar 22, 2002 vs Schelanberger

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Gardner 6.2
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Gardner 6.6
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 8, 2009Dream 7
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XDEC
1,7412,133
1,7312,142
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Gardner
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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