UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Aina vs Diaz

1,732

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
92% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.5 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.6 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.7 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.7 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better takedown defense 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.6 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Younger 33 years vs 36 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Mike Aina
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 7.6 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aina’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Aina
Significant Strikes110
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Aina's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Aina's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Aina on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mike
Aina
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Aina Diaz
Significant Strikes75
Aina's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Aina's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aina is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aina is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aina has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Aina 8.5
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Aina 7.6
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Aina 6.5
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Aina 7.6
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 15, 2007EliteXC - Uprising
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XR1 KO
1,6551,936
1,6381,953
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Aina
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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